lunaroglobal

March 30, 2026 - Reports of Trump considering seizing Iran’s Kharg Island, officials describing ground troop preparations, and a presidential promise of a deal “fairly quickly” opened the week with maximum ambiguity. Markets are modestly higher. The Nasdaq has bounced off its 23,000 support level. And eurozone inflation expectations just printed nearly double the forecast. The week opens with a set of developments that would be significant individually and, collectively, constitute the most contradictory single morning of the conflict period. Trump is reportedly considering seizing Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil export terminal, which would represent a dramatic military escalation. Officials have described troops preparing for ground operations, another major escalation step. And Trump himself has said a deal could be reached “fairly quickly,” his most optimistic framing since “ahead of schedule” in the conflict’s second week. Market reactions to Sunday night’s news were muted, and f...

March 27, 2026 - The US 15-point plan has been described as resembling a surrender document. Iran has countered with a 5-point plan that the US will not accept. Another Trump deadline has been extended. Neither side has an exit plan. Markets are near flat, held up more by presidential rhetoric than by hard facts. The week closes with a diplomatic picture that is simultaneously more developed and less hopeful than it appeared at Wednesday’s open. The existence of a 15-point peace plan, which drove the week’s most significant rally, has been contextualised by leaks describing it as a document so favourable to US and Israeli terms that it functions more as a demand for capitulation than a basis for negotiation. Iran’s counter-proposal, a 5-point plan that the US will not accept, confirms that both parties are transmitting positions rather than engaging in the give-and-take that precedes settlement. Another Trump deadline has been extended, eroding whatever deterrent value the original dea...

March 26, 2026 - Mixed messaging from the US and Iran has erased the gains from Wednesday’s peace plan. The Nasdaq has broken below 24,000, with the next major support at 23,000. The DAX has broken its long-term range with no clear floor until 21,500. Both the SPX and Nasdaq have now wiped out their late-2025 gains entirely. The pattern the market has established over four weeks of conflict has reasserted itself. Wednesday’s coordinated rally in support of the 15-point peace plan and Trump’s characterisation of Iranian enthusiasm have been undermined by Thursday’s mixed messaging between Washington and Tehran. US futures edged lower throughout the night. The Nasdaq has broken below its support level around 24,000, making lower lows and lower highs. The SPX and Nasdaq have now both erased the gains accumulated in the latter part of 2025, bringing the indices back to levels not seen since mid-year. In Europe, the DAX has broken below 23,400, ending its long-term range and leaving no clea...

  March 25, 2026 - Trump says Iran gave him a "very big present worth a tremendous amount of money" and wants a deal "so badly." Iran's military spokesman says the US is "negotiating with itself." Reports suggest a 15-point peace plan has been handed over. Markets are higher anyway. Wednesday opens with a diplomatic picture so contradictory that the honest analytical response is to acknowledge the confusion before attempting to extract a signal from it. Trump is describing a generous Iranian gesture and enthusiasm for a deal. An Iranian military spokesman is stating that Iran will never come to terms with the US and that Washington is negotiating with itself. Reports have emerged that the US handed over a 15-point peace plan. And markets, Asian equities and US futures alike, are higher. Oil is lower. The reaction is unambiguous even if the underlying reality is not. At the current stage of the conflict, the hesitant market that has been waiting on ...